Experts Applaud AIAE on Economic Forecast in Africa

Several accolades have been poured on the African Institute for Applied Economics (AIAE), for its initiative to spearhead research project on macro economic forecast in Nigeria and Africa. Experts drawn from public and private sectors including the academia gave the commendation at the research Seminar held at Transcorp Hilton, Abuja on the 23rd of August, 2011. The theme of the seminar was ‘Macro Economic Forecasting in Nigeria and Africa’.

The Workshop was a mid-research backstopping exercise aimed at communicating the on going research on macroeconomic forecasting and eliciting expert and end-user feedback on the research and policy-related challenges of developing and using macroeconomic forecasts, particularly in Nigeria and Africa in general.

Welcoming the participants to the Seminar, the Executive Director of the Institute, Professor Eric Eboh disclosed that the research project which the Institute has conducted is anchored on the need to fill gaps in model building and usage and provide intellectual leadership in weaving the rigours of theory to the realities of day-to-day business and policy needs using available data.

Professor Eboh noted that the research would also target forecasts of major macroeconomic indicators for decision-making in public and private sectors of the economy.  He said the project will also provide assessment and forecasts of major macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria as a first stage towards improving modelling in Africa. 

He stressed that, “The approach is to adopt rigorous theoretical processes that incorporate recent developments in the model-building literature with current developments in the economy and use these to analyze present trends and make projections about future impacts. The modelling will use alternative assumptions about shocks and relate their implications for the evolution of selected macroeconomic indices in the economy. By this project, we intend to stimulate change, not just in the modelling culture, but also in the appreciation and use of models. Also, the project will improve networking among producers and users of models in order to strengthen evidence based policymaking.”

The leader of the research team, Dr. Chukwuma Agu made a presentation on “AIAE Modelling Project in Context”, while Dr. Moses Oduh  and Emma Nwosu made presentations on” Model Typologies” and  “Assessment of Existing Models in Africa” respectively. The Seminar featured a plenary session on integrating models into policy- challenges and options, enhancing capacity for model building in Nigerian Institutions and funding and networks for model use in Africa.

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